First, these are super fun and I am a sucker for prediction lists.
Second, I will point out that you made a prediction about Open AI's naming convention, not really about a model change or paradigm shift or whatever. Lesson learned here, though I also feel like we knew better a year ago. o3 5.2 reasoning deep research wants a word.
Also: the model transparency one is really a "people can't really be that dumb, can they" kind of question vs a technical one. I'm afraid the answer is pretty much always "yes" here.
Are you doing a year-end piece w/2026 predictions? These are good ones- esp the Google callout, although I think it's still kinda up in the air (but very evident that Google has a huge structural advantage).
I'm on the fence as to whether I'll do another predictions post, but if I do, it'll be early January 2026, just like this year.
And sure, I think "ChatGPT" is too embedded in the minds of regular people as being equal to "AI" and many will continue using it to refer to chatbots in general for a while. I mean, people still use "Photoshop" as a verb for making photo edits, even when they're not necessarily using Adobe's products. So in that regard, OpenAI may continue leading the pure PR race for a year or two.
But I'm mostly interested in the actual leadership position, and I don't see OpenAI having a chance against Google, unless there's a drastic turnaround. Then again, never say never.
Nice summary, but did you seriously make seven predictions and not one of them was that everything would change? I was a huge fan of your newsletter, but ironically, this changes everything.
First, these are super fun and I am a sucker for prediction lists.
Second, I will point out that you made a prediction about Open AI's naming convention, not really about a model change or paradigm shift or whatever. Lesson learned here, though I also feel like we knew better a year ago. o3 5.2 reasoning deep research wants a word.
Also: the model transparency one is really a "people can't really be that dumb, can they" kind of question vs a technical one. I'm afraid the answer is pretty much always "yes" here.
Are you doing a year-end piece w/2026 predictions? These are good ones- esp the Google callout, although I think it's still kinda up in the air (but very evident that Google has a huge structural advantage).
I'm on the fence as to whether I'll do another predictions post, but if I do, it'll be early January 2026, just like this year.
And sure, I think "ChatGPT" is too embedded in the minds of regular people as being equal to "AI" and many will continue using it to refer to chatbots in general for a while. I mean, people still use "Photoshop" as a verb for making photo edits, even when they're not necessarily using Adobe's products. So in that regard, OpenAI may continue leading the pure PR race for a year or two.
But I'm mostly interested in the actual leadership position, and I don't see OpenAI having a chance against Google, unless there's a drastic turnaround. Then again, never say never.
2026 predictions, let's GOOOooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Nice summary, but did you seriously make seven predictions and not one of them was that everything would change? I was a huge fan of your newsletter, but ironically, this changes everything.
I did secretly predict that 99% would be using ChatGPT wrong, and I was right!
Verily, this changes everything. I've resubscribed. Merry Christmas.