First, these are super fun and I am a sucker for prediction lists.
Second, I will point out that you made a prediction about Open AI's naming convention, not really about a model change or paradigm shift or whatever. Lesson learned here, though I also feel like we knew better a year ago. o3 5.2 reasoning deep research wants a word.
Also: the model transparency one is really a "people can't really be that dumb, can they" kind of question vs a technical one. I'm afraid the answer is pretty much always "yes" here.
Are you doing a year-end piece w/2026 predictions? These are good ones- esp the Google callout, although I think it's still kinda up in the air (but very evident that Google has a huge structural advantage).
I'm on the fence as to whether I'll do another predictions post, but if I do, it'll be early January 2026, just like this year.
And sure, I think "ChatGPT" is too embedded in the minds of regular people as being equal to "AI" and many will continue using it to refer to chatbots in general for a while. I mean, people still use "Photoshop" as a verb for making photo edits, even when they're not necessarily using Adobe's products. So in that regard, OpenAI may continue leading the pure PR race for a year or two.
But I'm mostly interested in the actual leadership position, and I don't see OpenAI having a chance against Google, unless there's a drastic turnaround. Then again, never say never.
I think their only real way around this would be a style coup, kind of like what Apple accomplished in the early 2000s. I'm not sure Open AI will set the world on fire like that, though - but I'm pretty sure this is their strategy at the moment, and it's smart to try at least. Google just has the deepest pockets, too.
Do you know if other writers covering AI do predictions? Maybe you could do a small collab to ease the burden. I know those pieces are like candy for some folks to read.
Really interesting to see that both of our predictions were all directionally aligned, with the exception of regulation! I’m guessing it’s indicative of living in the US vs EU.
Nice summary, but did you seriously make seven predictions and not one of them was that everything would change? I was a huge fan of your newsletter, but ironically, this changes everything.
First, these are super fun and I am a sucker for prediction lists.
Second, I will point out that you made a prediction about Open AI's naming convention, not really about a model change or paradigm shift or whatever. Lesson learned here, though I also feel like we knew better a year ago. o3 5.2 reasoning deep research wants a word.
Also: the model transparency one is really a "people can't really be that dumb, can they" kind of question vs a technical one. I'm afraid the answer is pretty much always "yes" here.
Are you doing a year-end piece w/2026 predictions? These are good ones- esp the Google callout, although I think it's still kinda up in the air (but very evident that Google has a huge structural advantage).
I'm on the fence as to whether I'll do another predictions post, but if I do, it'll be early January 2026, just like this year.
And sure, I think "ChatGPT" is too embedded in the minds of regular people as being equal to "AI" and many will continue using it to refer to chatbots in general for a while. I mean, people still use "Photoshop" as a verb for making photo edits, even when they're not necessarily using Adobe's products. So in that regard, OpenAI may continue leading the pure PR race for a year or two.
But I'm mostly interested in the actual leadership position, and I don't see OpenAI having a chance against Google, unless there's a drastic turnaround. Then again, never say never.
I think their only real way around this would be a style coup, kind of like what Apple accomplished in the early 2000s. I'm not sure Open AI will set the world on fire like that, though - but I'm pretty sure this is their strategy at the moment, and it's smart to try at least. Google just has the deepest pockets, too.
Do you know if other writers covering AI do predictions? Maybe you could do a small collab to ease the burden. I know those pieces are like candy for some folks to read.
Really interesting to see that both of our predictions were all directionally aligned, with the exception of regulation! I’m guessing it’s indicative of living in the US vs EU.
Yeah for sure, I think I was naive enough to overlook the Trump administration's anti-regulation stance, especially when it comes to AI.
2026 predictions, let's GOOOooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Nice summary, but did you seriously make seven predictions and not one of them was that everything would change? I was a huge fan of your newsletter, but ironically, this changes everything.
I did secretly predict that 99% would be using ChatGPT wrong, and I was right!
Verily, this changes everything. I've resubscribed. Merry Christmas.