My 7 AI Predictions for 2025: How Did I Do?
Taking stock of what I got right, wrong, and kinda-sorta-right.
Ladies and gentlemen.
Fellas and fellow-ettes.
It’s that time of the year again.
Some would say it’s the most wonderful time of the year. (Unless they’re McDonald’s.)
Most of us are winding down for the holidays, including yours truly. This will be my last new Thursday post of 2025, although I’ll likely dust off something from the archives to rerun in the next two weeks.
But before I go, I want to revisit my predictions from early January:
I made exactly seven of them, and now it’s time to find out how accurate they were by rating them as:
✅ = Accurate
🟨 = Partially accurate/mixed
❌ = Wrong
Let’s go!
✅ 1. Reasoning models converge
My prediction (more context here):
By the end of 2025, reasoning models from at least three other players will perform on par with or better than OpenAI’s o3.
Reality:
This one’s pretty clear-cut.
When I wrote the prediction, o3 was a yet-to-b…