I agree that it seems hard to find a positive use for this kind of thing. What I could envision happening is essentially the end of the video testimonial for product reviews. Nobody will ever believe a "busy mom's" TikTok style review for an egg-whisker, skin cream, hair supplement etc again.
It will eventually make consumers extremely cynical of everything they're ever shown and basically break advertising.
Sadly, I don't think we can count on the average consumer showing that level of discernment.
Case in point: All the Facebook pages sharing clearly AI-generated images of "dream houses" and "my 3-year-old built a giant sand sculpture of Jesus all by himself," and the thousands of likes and comments they get.
Not to mention all the traditional hoaxes, scams, etc. that continue to exist and thrive even in the Internet age.
Yes, but, but, what if we don't want to make a video of that man with the stubbly beard??
Seriously, thanks for this review Daniel. Interesting as usual. Given the fairly severe time limits placed on these accounts, it looks like processing power may be the primary limiting factor on services of this kind, for now.
Here's the value I see in this DeepFake stuff. It's a form of emerging tech that everyone can understand and see the potential problems with. The next step should be to help readers understand that DeepFake tech is just one of a thousand different problematic technologies that are emerging from an accelerating knowledge explosion.
I just watched a documentary on Amazon Prime about DeepMind, a leading AI development company. It gives you insight in to how such industry leaders think. They're going for broke in every direction they can. They make vague polite little noises about their supposed "concerns" but that seems to have little to no impact upon their desire to race ahead as fast as possible.
Another example beyond AI is CRISPR, which is making genetic engineering ever easier, ever cheaper, and thus ever more accessible to ever more people. Don't worry about DeepFakes, worry about your next door neighbor creating new life forms in his garage workshop. The people who brought us this emerging threat got a Nobel Prize for it.
I've been writing about this kind of thing for over a decade and engaging in conversation with the most educated people who will talk to me.
From that experience I've concluded that as a culture we're not even vaguely ready for what is coming. These developments are just too big for us to grasp with mere logic. It's going to take some kind of epic calamity to get us to take any of this seriously. Human beings learn primarily through pain.
So am I worried about DeepFakes? No, I'm worried about much larger picture DeepFakes are a tiny example of. And at age 73, I'm worrying less and less about that too, as I have a "get out of jail free" card.
Sorry, the only acceptable avatar is the man with the stubby beard. In the future, that will be the golden standard for men and women alike. It's called dystopia for a reason.
And yeah, I've watched a couple of documentaries on CRISPR and biohackers. The difference isn't the potential level of threat but the timeline. Deepfakes are easy here and now. If there's something that lets my neighbor clone a biosoldier in his garage tomorrow in a few minutes, I'll start worrying about that.
Also, DeepMind is basically Google now - I believe they bought it all the way back in 2014. Many Google releases we see these days come from the DeepMind division.
Speaking of dystopian forecasts, have you already read the AI 2027 take? You might enjoy it: https://ai-2027.com/
The Stubbly Dystopia is finally here!!!! All is lost!!! Aieeeeee!
In watching the DeepMind documentary, I was struck by how very intelligent and stupid technologists can be. And dishonest. They express just enough politically correct concerns to cover their public relations ass, and then they blast ahead at full speed anyway, knowing not where they are going. It never seems to occur to them that their money won't protect them once society spins out of control.
The CRISPR people are just like that too. I once spent a month on their Facebook page trying to engage them in respectful conversation. They ignored me, and when I finally asked one inconvenient question too many they erased all my posts and closed down their comment section. And then in interviews they would always say how important it is to engage the public etc. Corporate bullshit running wild.
Anyway, as to DeepFakes, I think they have a value in that they illustrate the dangers coming in a manner that is easy for the average person to grasp.
But in the end, that won't matter either. We're just going to have to keep blasting ahead until we hit the wall.
Thanks Daniel! I guess we’re maybe all going to stumble on one once :)
Must admit I was surprised when I wrote it - I still wonder if I have read it somewhere, but can’t recall or recognise it. Can’t say I surprise myself often these days. Great article of yours though - it’s an almost unimaginable capability to me. Unfortunately very weaponiseable, I agree.
Yeah, I actually Googled it after your comment to see if it's a quote from some show, but it doesn't look like it. You must trademark the phrase officially, ASAP!
Deepfakes were already relatively easy with lots of off-the-shelf tools, but this appears to make it that much easier.
I agree that it seems hard to find a positive use for this kind of thing. What I could envision happening is essentially the end of the video testimonial for product reviews. Nobody will ever believe a "busy mom's" TikTok style review for an egg-whisker, skin cream, hair supplement etc again.
It will eventually make consumers extremely cynical of everything they're ever shown and basically break advertising.
Maybe that's okay?
That'd be the "happy" outcome for sure!
Sadly, I don't think we can count on the average consumer showing that level of discernment.
Case in point: All the Facebook pages sharing clearly AI-generated images of "dream houses" and "my 3-year-old built a giant sand sculpture of Jesus all by himself," and the thousands of likes and comments they get.
Not to mention all the traditional hoaxes, scams, etc. that continue to exist and thrive even in the Internet age.
Yes, but, but, what if we don't want to make a video of that man with the stubbly beard??
Seriously, thanks for this review Daniel. Interesting as usual. Given the fairly severe time limits placed on these accounts, it looks like processing power may be the primary limiting factor on services of this kind, for now.
Here's the value I see in this DeepFake stuff. It's a form of emerging tech that everyone can understand and see the potential problems with. The next step should be to help readers understand that DeepFake tech is just one of a thousand different problematic technologies that are emerging from an accelerating knowledge explosion.
I just watched a documentary on Amazon Prime about DeepMind, a leading AI development company. It gives you insight in to how such industry leaders think. They're going for broke in every direction they can. They make vague polite little noises about their supposed "concerns" but that seems to have little to no impact upon their desire to race ahead as fast as possible.
https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Game-Greg-Kohs/dp/B0DV8XKWG8
Another example beyond AI is CRISPR, which is making genetic engineering ever easier, ever cheaper, and thus ever more accessible to ever more people. Don't worry about DeepFakes, worry about your next door neighbor creating new life forms in his garage workshop. The people who brought us this emerging threat got a Nobel Prize for it.
I've been writing about this kind of thing for over a decade and engaging in conversation with the most educated people who will talk to me.
https://www.tannytalk.com/p/our-relationship-with-knowledge
From that experience I've concluded that as a culture we're not even vaguely ready for what is coming. These developments are just too big for us to grasp with mere logic. It's going to take some kind of epic calamity to get us to take any of this seriously. Human beings learn primarily through pain.
So am I worried about DeepFakes? No, I'm worried about much larger picture DeepFakes are a tiny example of. And at age 73, I'm worrying less and less about that too, as I have a "get out of jail free" card.
Sorry, the only acceptable avatar is the man with the stubby beard. In the future, that will be the golden standard for men and women alike. It's called dystopia for a reason.
And yeah, I've watched a couple of documentaries on CRISPR and biohackers. The difference isn't the potential level of threat but the timeline. Deepfakes are easy here and now. If there's something that lets my neighbor clone a biosoldier in his garage tomorrow in a few minutes, I'll start worrying about that.
Also, DeepMind is basically Google now - I believe they bought it all the way back in 2014. Many Google releases we see these days come from the DeepMind division.
Speaking of dystopian forecasts, have you already read the AI 2027 take? You might enjoy it: https://ai-2027.com/
The Stubbly Dystopia is finally here!!!! All is lost!!! Aieeeeee!
In watching the DeepMind documentary, I was struck by how very intelligent and stupid technologists can be. And dishonest. They express just enough politically correct concerns to cover their public relations ass, and then they blast ahead at full speed anyway, knowing not where they are going. It never seems to occur to them that their money won't protect them once society spins out of control.
The CRISPR people are just like that too. I once spent a month on their Facebook page trying to engage them in respectful conversation. They ignored me, and when I finally asked one inconvenient question too many they erased all my posts and closed down their comment section. And then in interviews they would always say how important it is to engage the public etc. Corporate bullshit running wild.
Anyway, as to DeepFakes, I think they have a value in that they illustrate the dangers coming in a manner that is easy for the average person to grasp.
But in the end, that won't matter either. We're just going to have to keep blasting ahead until we hit the wall.
I’m the fourth wall, and I’m broken ™️
Thanks Daniel! I guess we’re maybe all going to stumble on one once :)
Must admit I was surprised when I wrote it - I still wonder if I have read it somewhere, but can’t recall or recognise it. Can’t say I surprise myself often these days. Great article of yours though - it’s an almost unimaginable capability to me. Unfortunately very weaponiseable, I agree.
Yeah, I actually Googled it after your comment to see if it's a quote from some show, but it doesn't look like it. You must trademark the phrase officially, ASAP!
Deepfakes were already relatively easy with lots of off-the-shelf tools, but this appears to make it that much easier.
That's a Hollywood movie level of quote-worthiness right there!
I could easily turn all of my essay voice-overs into rendered videos of me reading them and load them on Youtube?
Not with this specific photo-to-video feature: It's limited to 30 seconds per video and is intended for quick messages.
For your voiceover use case, you'd want to go the old-school way with a more professional customer avatar from either Heygen or Synthesia:
https://www.synthesia.io/features/custom-avatar
https://www.heygen.com/avatars/ai-video-avatar
Oh. I did see that limitation on a second review. But I’m sure we aren’t far!
Yeah now that the underlying tech is out there, extending it to longer videos seems trivial.